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Online Pugger

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2014, 09:28:43 AM »
Carolina´s lengthy injury report...    think they held quite a few out for a rest only.

Benjamin got concussion on hit to head from Burfict, it is probably 50/50 he will play...  finished game vs Bengals, complained of headaches Monday and started protocol.  Williams is still 2 weeks out and Stewart will be back.  Their starting G will most likely miss game as well.  Davis had been injured prior, so I assume only resting him to recover some more and  assume both him and Olsen will play.

Benjamin, Kelvin   WR   Concussion   DNP   -   -   -
Benwikere, Bene   CB   Ankle           DNP   -   -   -
Blackburn, Chase   LB   Knee           DNP   -   -   -
Davis, Thomas           LB   Non-Injury   DNP   -   -   -
Edwards, Dwan   DT   Non-Injury   DNP   -   -   -
Harper, Roman           S   Non-Injury   DNP   -   -   -
Norman, Josh           CB   Concussion   LP   -   -   -
Olsen, Greg           TE   Ankle           DNP   -   -   -
Reaves, Darrin           RB   Calf                   LP   -   -   -
Silatolu, Amini           G   Calf                   DNP   -   -   -
Stewart, Jonathan   RB   Knee           FP   -   -   -
Whittaker, Fozzy   RB   Thigh           DNP   -   -   -
Williams, DeAngelo   RB   Ankle           DNP

My god, that is one long list!   :o  It resembles us from last year - *knock on wood*

Offline be_here_now

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2014, 03:33:03 PM »
i posted this in another thread, but it bears repeating.  the Panthers have allowed an NFL-worst 5.5 yards per carry.  OUCH!  that's .4 more per carry than the next-worst Cowboys.

look for the running game to get back on track against these guys.  i wonder if the Starks/Lacy even split will continue?

Offline Tony

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2014, 03:40:39 PM »
Sadly, read-option and Clay Mathews don't go well together.  Overall, Clay's play as of late has been mediocre - no tackles or sacks last weekend.  Given the recent injuries to other key members of the defense, GB needs Clay more than ever this weekend.  If Clay has a big game, then we win, IMO.  If not, it could be a long day.

Offline claymaker

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2014, 05:04:05 PM »
Sadly, read-option and Clay Mathews don't go well together.  Overall, Clay's play as of late has been mediocre - no tackles or sacks last weekend.  Given the recent injuries to other key members of the defense, GB needs Clay more than ever this weekend.  If Clay has a big game, then we win, IMO.  If not, it could be a long day.

He had 2 plays where he looked like he clearly wasn't ready for it. Go back to last years SF game tell me he's bad at defending it. Mediocre? Tell that to the people trying to block him and offenses accounting for where he is every play. Stats mean diddly squat. He leads the team with 14 QB hurries (4th in the league), and ranks 10th among OLBs with 10 QB hits. They've also seen a TON of quick hitting offenses so far: Miami, Seattle, Jets, and Minnesota. They've also been on the road a lot.

When he is rushing on the outside teams still chip him and double team him. If you ever actually looked at his game stats over the years most of production comes in bunches. Recording 6 sacks in the first 2 games of 2010 and 2012 yet had multiple games where he didn't record a notable stat in either. I think Clay could have a big game this week being back at Lambeau. I don't think it's a coincidence his only sack has been @Lambeau this year.

I can promise you they're going to use him to neutralize Newton from scrambling, so his opportunities to rush will be limited. He's their best defender and open field player. Having him 1v1 with Newton is the only matchup they would have they don't lose every time against Newton.

Nick Perry and Mike Neal are also being productive, even with Clay on the sidelines at times. Perry is really the productive one based off his snap count.

You look across the league and you'll see many premier pass rushers don't have huge numbers like we've seen over the last few years. 6 games in the league's leader is Willie Young with 7 sacks. Followed by Von Miller and Justin Houston with 6 sacks being the only notable names.

I think we need to remove the belief that Matthews is just a pass rusher, and if he isn't getting 15 sacks a year he isn't earning his contract. He hasn't been for some time, and until recently the team had no other players to create pressure. Now they do, and look how things are coming together for them. They have a top 5 pass defense, creating lots of turnovers, run defense just keeps getting better, and have made big stops when they needed to (probably their biggest fault over the last few years.) I'm not saying if they put Clay at the line every play the defense would revert to it's old self, but I see an improving defense. Why change what is working? Because you want one player to get more sacks? This isn't your Madden game.

Offline be_here_now

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2014, 05:24:33 PM »
Clay has also done a great job of breaking off his blocks and batting balls when he sees the QB about to throw.  he's knocked down several and been inches away on a few more.  some day soon he's going to get his hands around one and take it to the house!

Offline Half Empty

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2014, 06:57:53 PM »
Depends on how far he has to run.   :)

Offline Tony

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2014, 08:00:51 PM »
Sadly, read-option and Clay Mathews don't go well together.  Overall, Clay's play as of late has been mediocre - no tackles or sacks last weekend.  Given the recent injuries to other key members of the defense, GB needs Clay more than ever this weekend.  If Clay has a big game, then we win, IMO.  If not, it could be a long day.

He had 2 plays where he looked like he clearly wasn't ready for it. Go back to last years SF game tell me he's bad at defending it. Mediocre? Tell that to the people trying to block him and offenses accounting for where he is every play. Stats mean diddly squat. He leads the team with 14 QB hurries (4th in the league), and ranks 10th among OLBs with 10 QB hits. They've also seen a TON of quick hitting offenses so far: Miami, Seattle, Jets, and Minnesota. They've also been on the road a lot.

When he is rushing on the outside teams still chip him and double team him. If you ever actually looked at his game stats over the years most of production comes in bunches. Recording 6 sacks in the first 2 games of 2010 and 2012 yet had multiple games where he didn't record a notable stat in either. I think Clay could have a big game this week being back at Lambeau. I don't think it's a coincidence his only sack has been @Lambeau this year.

I can promise you they're going to use him to neutralize Newton from scrambling, so his opportunities to rush will be limited. He's their best defender and open field player. Having him 1v1 with Newton is the only matchup they would have they don't lose every time against Newton.

Nick Perry and Mike Neal are also being productive, even with Clay on the sidelines at times. Perry is really the productive one based off his snap count.

You look across the league and you'll see many premier pass rushers don't have huge numbers like we've seen over the last few years. 6 games in the league's leader is Willie Young with 7 sacks. Followed by Von Miller and Justin Houston with 6 sacks being the only notable names.

I think we need to remove the belief that Matthews is just a pass rusher, and if he isn't getting 15 sacks a year he isn't earning his contract. He hasn't been for some time, and until recently the team had no other players to create pressure. Now they do, and look how things are coming together for them. They have a top 5 pass defense, creating lots of turnovers, run defense just keeps getting better, and have made big stops when they needed to (probably their biggest fault over the last few years.) I'm not saying if they put Clay at the line every play the defense would revert to it's old self, but I see an improving defense. Why change what is working? Because you want one player to get more sacks? This isn't your Madden game.

I'm not nearly as concerned about his sack total as I am his ability to be more effective in the read option and make some tackles THIS WEEKEND!  He even admitted himself that he's been off his game (I'll share the link in a bit). So while it's nice you want to defend him, I laugh because Clay isn't even defending his own play as of late!

Look dude, Claymaker, all I'm saying is GB needs him to step up in THIS game!
« Last Edit: October 16, 2014, 08:08:49 PM by Tony »

Offline Tony

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2014, 08:06:30 PM »
Claymaker, here's the link I promised in the post above.  Clay Matthews is too important to this defense and GB needs him to be on top of his game this weekend!  That's all I'm saying.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/16/clay-matthews-i-can-be-better/
« Last Edit: October 16, 2014, 08:07:11 PM by Tony »

Online ricky

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2014, 08:57:18 PM »
The Lions play the Saints this week. Next week its the Packers turn. So, in the next two weeks, the Packers and Lions could swap positions in the standings before the Packers bye week. Its early, and the division title could come down to the December 28 game at Lambeau. But to go into the bye on a winning streak and the division lead would be really, really nice.
"My hopes are not always realized, but I always hope." Ovid

Offline skcusICH

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #24 on: October 16, 2014, 11:45:32 PM »
I think Carolina's 27th ranked run defense (32nd ypc) is a bit misleading. A perfect example of stats not telling the whole story.

274 of their opponents' yards have come off of 4 carries.

Outside of those 4 carries, they're allowing 3.8 yards per carry & 94.5 yards per game.

I know you can't just completely dismiss those carries, but watching them play...they look like a good run defense. I have no doubt in my mind that they are capable of shutting the run down for 4 quarters against anyone. Missed tackles is what resulted in those big runs, but the strange thing is, they look like a very good tackling team in my opinion. I'm chalking up those big runs as a fluke and view this as a very good run defense. Luke Kuechly absolutely shuts down anything to the outside & any dump offs to the RB's. He controls his part of the field. How nice it must be to have a MLB who does what he does. I had never closely watched him play until I watched all of the Carolina games this week.

It seems all the Packers have faced this year (minus Chicago) is teams who have a front four who gets to the QB. Carolina is no different. Being at home, I'm expecting Aaron Rodgers being able to slow the pass rush down enough with his hard count and cadence.

The problem they have on defense is the two cornerbacks. #20 & #23 have been downright horrible. If they're not allowing big completions, they're either getting flagged for pass interference or defensive holding. Thats seems to be their best defense against a big play. Opposing QB's have had pressure in their face and just chuck the ball up against these two with great success. They appear to have little ability to find the ball or play the ball in the air. They're always at least a step behind or playing 10 yards off the ball. I've been debating whether Aaron Rodgers is going to be willing to chuck passes up to beat these corners. It's just something he doesn't do, but everyone has had success against Carolina doing it.

One tendency I noticed in Carolina's passing game is the end zone shot to Kelvin Benjamin as soon as they get between the 30 and 20 yard line. He is very good at adjusting to the ball and getting both feet in bounds. He also loves to push off in this situation. Hopefully the refs don't allow him to continue to do this. With him, Greg Olson, Cam's vision, and smarts...they're a very tough team to defend in the red zone.

I'm expecting a little bit of the triple option with a WR. They've shown the look numerous times and could have success with it against a Green Bay defense who seems to over pursue many plays. Despite Cam Newton's 100+ yard day last week, he still doesn't look like he's moving as well as he used to. Despite that, he still needs to be accounted for in the read option. He doesn't make many poor decisions and has quite the arm. It's going to be a task to slow them down especially with Greg Olsen at TE. People from all over the country have down played Carolina's weapons on offense (mainly #2 & 3 WR's). My view is, they have plenty of weapons to inflict damage. Getting Jonathan Stewart back is only going to improve their offense. I expect more than a few broken tackles out of him this Sunday. Every area of the field will need to be covered. That's a recipe for allowing points.

I'm seeing a high scoring game that could go either way and may come down to a timely turnover.

Offline craig

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2014, 10:09:42 AM »
I think Carolina's 27th ranked run defense (32nd ypc) is a bit misleading. A perfect example of stats not telling the whole story.

274 of their opponents' yards have come off of 4 carries.

Outside of those 4 carries, they're allowing 3.8 yards per carry & 94.5 yards per game....

Great point.  We're not going to be consistently getting productive yardage by running. 

Running averages are averages; I wish running medians were reported more frequently. 

Offline craig

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2014, 10:20:51 AM »
...If the offense can help the defense by keeping Newton off the field, making them one dimensional, and making Newton force passes the defense will do well.

Do you think the Packers should emphasize the running game more? Because that would eat up the clock, keeping Newton neutralized, as you wisely suggested. But should the Packers go with Starks or Lacy? ...

Ricky, running doesn't eat up clock if it's not getting first downs.  And a running play doesn't eat up any more clock than a completed pass. 

If clock is your priority, then do whatever will best get you first downs.  And a lot of that is passing.  If running if getting good yardage and facilitating first downs and TD's, mix in a fair dose of runs.  But running and punting does no clock good. 

I think given Carolina's front 7 and their linebackers; the 3.8 ypc allowed apart from the four long runs; the run-blocking problems that's endemic to a line with Bulaga, Bakhti, and Quarless/Rodgers; and the extreme weakness in the Carolina secondary, I think we should be using the passing game as the primary weapon, and the running game as a secondary support weapon.

Offline Hincha

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2014, 11:34:10 AM »
I think Carolina's 27th ranked run defense (32nd ypc) is a bit misleading. A perfect example of stats not telling the whole story.

274 of their opponents' yards have come off of 4 carries.

Outside of those 4 carries, they're allowing 3.8 yards per carry & 94.5 yards per game....

Great point.  We're not going to be consistently getting productive yardage by running. 

Running averages are averages; I wish running medians were reported more frequently.

Yes... interesting point, I was aware of the big Bernard run (he is on my fantasy team), but unaware there were 3 other long runs.  But that in itself considering only 6 games played maybe points to an issue with their defense allowing runs > 50 yards when RBs get to 2nd level... maybe Packers can break off a long run on Sunday.

Here are Packers/Panthers rush defenses vs common opponents:
Lions game:
Panthers -  18/70  3.9 yards avg
Packers -    38/115  3.0 yards avg

Bears game:
Panthers -  22/85  3.9 yards avg
Packers -   41/235  5.7 yards avg

I think the running may be difficult on Sunday for Packers.

Offline BobW

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2014, 11:40:59 AM »
Injury report:

Barrington: Probable
Boyd: Probable
Boykin: Questionable
DJones: OUT
Lattimore: Questionable
Shields: OUT
Williams: Questionable
« Last Edit: October 17, 2014, 11:41:46 AM by BobW »

Offline craig

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Re: The OFFICIAL Panthers v Packers Game Day Thread
« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2014, 02:07:44 PM »
Disapponted with Datone setback. Maybe after the bye?  May also be that even if/when he does come back, he'll still be lame/gimpy, and we won't again see this year the guy that seemed to be emerging prior to the injury. 

Is this ankle injury on the same side as last year?  Or was that the opposite leg?