September 25, 2017, 07:18:22 PM

Author Topic: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010  (Read 1010 times)

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Online Lodestar

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First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« on: April 28, 2017, 01:30:35 AM »
2010 was the year the draft expanded to 3 days. I've always been intrigued by the idea of having the first pick on a given day, thinking it must produce some advantage in terms of picking the best player available. Looking back at past drafts, I'm not sure that's the case at all (Landon Collins aside). Now I'm hoping we trade back to a team that is enamoured with one of the many promising players still available.

First pick of Day 2

2016 - DE Emmanuel Ogbah
2015 - S Landon Collins
2014 - OG Xavier Su'a-Filo
2013 - S Johnathan Cyprien
2012 - WR Brian Quick
2011 - CB Ras-I Dowling 
2010 - OT Rodger Saffold

First pick of Day 3

2016 - OLB Joe Schobert
2015 - DT Angelo Blackson
2014 - CB Jaylen Watkins
2013 -  QB Matt Barkley
2012 - WR Chris Givens
2011 - CB Brandon Hogan
2010 - WR Mardy Gilyard
« Last Edit: April 28, 2017, 02:12:25 AM by Lodestar »

Offline bbayley

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Re: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2017, 02:05:26 AM »
Thanks for putting that together Lode.

I'm with you, would rather trade the pick(s) if the results are anything like previous years.  Collins is a beast, but the rest seem to be misses.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2017, 06:13:46 AM »
Consider the teams who have been picking first in days 2 & 3.

It's, almost always, the same teams that hold the #1 overall pick. And the reason they hold those picks is because they aren't very good teams and/or they aren't good talent evaluators, like the Packers are.

Online ricky

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Re: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2017, 08:14:43 AM »
Consider the teams who have been picking first in days 2 & 3.

It's, almost always, the same teams that hold the #1 overall pick. And the reason they hold those picks is because they aren't very good teams and/or they aren't good talent evaluators, like the Packers are.

Very astute. And spot on. The Packers haven't made the playoffs for so many years in a row on luck. It's been good drafting, good coaching and an excellent QB. Who was drafted while the Packers already had a HOF QB on the team. Meanwhile, while other teams have had bad picks in the second round, let's see who the Packers drafted in the second round since 2010:

2010: Neal
2011: Cobb
2012: Heyward and Worthy (Daniels was drafted in the fourth)
2013: Lacy
2014: Adams
2015: Rollins
2016: Spriggs

This is not a list of losers. OK, Worthy wasn't. But overall, TT seems to shine in the middle rounds, while he seems to falter in the first. So a trade back to get more shots at the large amount of talent left is not a surprise. Joe Mixon anyone in round 2? After all, his hitting the woman s three years in the past; the two have met and reconciled, and the guy does seem genuinely contrite. I'm not defending him, but sometimes it's time to forgive and forget.
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Offline ThatGuy284

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Re: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2017, 08:32:51 AM »
I think this is a case of trying to find a correlation where there is none.   Those players being picked where they were and not all panning out has no connection to the players in this draft or the teams making the picks.

One of my favorite books is Freakonomics:

"Think about this correlation: cities with a lot of murders also tend to have a lot of police officers...Denver and Washington DC have about the same population but Washington has nearly three times the number of murders....Someone who didn't know better might contemplate these figures and conclude that it is all those extra police in Washington who are causing the extra murders."

Or

"Consider the folktale of the czar who learned that the most disease-ridden province in his empire was also the province with the most doctors.  His solution? He promptly ordered all the doctors shot dead."
« Last Edit: April 28, 2017, 08:53:41 AM by ThatGuy284 »

Offline packdaddy

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Re: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2017, 08:56:29 AM »
A good stat to see is how many of times the team sitting there with the pick traded down.

Offline dannobanano

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Re: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2017, 09:47:14 AM »
I think this is a case of trying to find a correlation where there is none.   Those players being picked where they were and not all panning out has no connection to the players in this draft or the teams making the picks.

One of my favorite books is Freakonomics:

"Think about this correlation: cities with a lot of murders also tend to have a lot of police officers...Denver and Washington DC have about the same population but Washington has nearly three times the number of murders....Someone who didn't know better might contemplate these figures and conclude that it is all those extra police in Washington who are causing the extra murders."
(the other correlation is those high murder cities are typically "gun free zones" as well.........hmmmm.)  confused(

Or

"Consider the folktale of the czar who learned that the most disease-ridden province in his empire was also the province with the most doctors.  His solution? He promptly ordered all the doctors shot dead."

Offline SSG

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Re: First Pick of Days 2 & 3 -- Since 2010
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2017, 10:04:49 AM »
A good stat to see is how many of times the team sitting there with the pick traded down.

It looks like its been traded twice since the first round was given its own day.
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