September 25, 2017, 07:13:35 PM

Author Topic: Five years of drafting - rounds 1-4  (Read 423 times)

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Online OneTwoSixFive

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Five years of drafting - rounds 1-4
« on: August 02, 2017, 03:17:46 PM »
I thought it might be interesting to see where the higher picks of the Packers draft (rounds 1-4) went in a 5 year period, to give some idea of the priorities the Packers place on certain positions. This is how it pans out (draft round is in brackets).

2013 DE(1), RB(2), OT(4), C(4), RB(4)
2014 S(1), WR(2), DE(3), TE(3), ILB(4)
2015 CB(1), CB(2), WR[RB]3, ILB(4)
2016 NT(1), OT(2), OLB(3), ILB(4), DE(4)
2017 CB(1), S/ILB(2), DE(3), OLB(4), RB(4)

Quite apart from the somewhat amusing game of naming all the players drafted, just from the list above (you can do it !), this list points up some things. To make things clearer, I'll break it down by position and name the draftees.

QB zero
OL (outside) 2 Bakhtiari, Spriggs
OL (inside) 1 Tretter
WR 2(1) (Montgomery, later a RB), D.Adams
TE 1 Rodgers
RB 3(4) Lacy, Franklin, Montgomery*, Williams

NT 1 Clark
DE 3 Thornton, D.Jones, Lowry, M.Adams
OLB 2 Fackrell, Biegel
ILB 3(4) Bradford, Ryan, Martinez, (J.Jones S/ILB hybrid)
S 2(1) Clinton-Dix, J.Jones
CB 3 Randall, Rollins, King

The first thing that jumps out at me is the extraordinary success rate of picks in these rounds. Franklin was lost to injury, Thornton and Bradford never developed - everyone else looks like a solid pick (you could argue Randall and Rollins, but I won't 'bust' them for one bad year).

The O line had less picks than I would have expected - Ted often grabs tackles to play guard (sometimes even center) later in the draft, so the number of earlier picks looks a bit on the light side.
WR is really light - again, later picks make up the numbers, but looking at this I'd expect Ted to invest either a first or second round pick at WR in 2018.
TE Has only one pick - slightly surprising no TE taken this year, a very good year for TEs, but the two FAs meant this could wait.
RB Good investment if you include Montgomery.

NT and DE. Four guys there is a good investment
ILB 3-4 guys there is rather a large investment
OLB Only two guys, a pretty puny investment at a premium position in the 3-4 (despite it being the age of the sub-package). This would be awful but for two ILBs who have played OLB.
S 2 Average investment, but there are guys listed at CB who could play safety
CB 3 No investment in 2013, 2014, but a solid one over the last three years with two first rounders and a second.

The numbers don't tell the whole story - guys drafted later who turn out well and fill some spots (like 5th round pick Linsley at center). Still, on these figures, it would seem likely that two positions are neglected over this 5 year period, WR and OLB. I'd project them as likely candidates for the first two picks in 2018. After that, another S wouldn't surprise me nor would another TE or a decent guard. Of course, losses after this year to injury or contract not renewed, or cut, will affect the needs of the team, but I think Ted likes balance, and WR and OLB have been rather neglected. Since they are two positions that really benefit from as high a pick as you can get, they may well be the choice - the good ones go quickly. The aging of Matthews and Nelson make this even more likely.

Finally, the balance between Off and Def picks is 9 to 15. That suggests a good chance of an offense heavy draft, in the first four rounds of 2018. It should go without saying that you have to draft where the value is, but several roughly equal players on offer at any one of the early picks, allows Ted several choices, and if one player is head and shoulders above the others, that is probably a steal anyway.
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Online OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Five years of drafting - rounds 1-4
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2017, 05:48:57 PM »
Too late to change it now, but 2017 should have had King as a second round pick, not a first.
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"

Offline dannobanano

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Re: Five years of drafting - rounds 1-4
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2017, 06:11:20 PM »
Good stuff 1265!
Thanks for all the research!

I agree on OLB as high priority next year. I'm in wait and see mode on WR because of the kids that they have brought in this year. Who makes the "53" and who gets signed to the PS, along with what they do with D Adams and Cobb for next year will bring some clarity to that question.
 
Don't see OG that high though. Ted tends not to use high picks on interior OL.

TE should be set through 2018, but drafting one to develop makes sense.

DL could be a strength for years to come with the young talent currently on the roster as well.

Next years draft could put this team in a position to win multiple SB's over the next 3-4 years, even after winning it all this year!!   thumbsup)

Online OneTwoSixFive

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Re: Five years of drafting - rounds 1-4
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2017, 06:40:32 PM »
Thanks, danno. I should have made clear I viewed guard as a possible fourth rounder, he has done well there in the past (Lang, Sitton). The reason I picked guard as a position was that Evans, the likely starter this year, is getting up in years, but if someone like Patrick or Gray or Murphy step up there, the need drops.
(ricky) "Personally, I'm putting this in a box, driving a stake through its heart, firing a silver bullet into its (empty) head, nailing it shut, loading it into a rocket and firing it into the sun. "

(Pink Floyd) "Set the controls for the heart of the sun"