October 30, 2014, 12:27:37 PM

Author Topic: NFL Draft Pick Value Charts - Jimmy Johnson's standard and the Harvard chart  (Read 3242 times)

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Online marklawrence

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The draft approaches rapidly, and there will be increasing talk about it. Often a big part of the Packers drafts is trades. This is a draft considered a bit light at the top and deeper than many, so it would not be surprising to see Thompson trade down a bit. Additionally there are several QB hungry teams and we could hope to see them over-value certain guys and then over-pay to get them.

When trading picks you have to put a value on them. Below is the standard draft pick value chart to help figure out trades. This chart was apparently invented by Jimmy Johnson, and everyone in the NFL uses it as a guideline. Trades will almost never be for exactly even values. Future draft picks are valued according to this chart, but about a third to a half less than shown. So next year's #1 pick would be valued somewhere in the 1500-2000 range.



In 2011 a guy at Harvard did a careful statistic study of the economic value of the draft picks over the last 25 years, and statistically speaking came up with a more impressive chart. It's to be remembered that pretty much no one in the NFL admits to using this chart, so it's a bit like being the only english speaker at a Filipino BBQ where everyone else is speaking tagalog. None the less, this chart has actual analysis behind it:



(note: this table is now spread all over the internet, but incorrectly. It's also incorrectly reported in the original paper. I don't understand the source of the error, but the commonly reported table leaps from a value at pick 32 of 200 to a value at pick 33 of 175. I've corrected it using the author's original regression formula.)

It's important to note that Jimmy's chart says the #1 pick is 1000 times as valuable as the #224 pick; a careful analysis indicates a better valuation would be something like 15 time as valuable. In today's NFL, trading down from the 2nd through 4th round can save you some serious cap room and cash - the Packers trades cleared $3M in cap room in 2013 - and can leave you with similar odds of getting an impact player, given that you now most likely have two picks to your previous one.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2014, 02:03:03 PM by marklawrence »

Offline armchair qb

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Re: NFL Draft Pick Value Chart
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2013, 09:22:29 AM »
I think we'll see a buyer's market this year for trades.  Seeing that the depth of the draft is great and there is little top end talent. The cost of moving up (outside the top 10 or 15 picks) should go down.

So the packer's 26th pick could net something like a high 2nd and a high 4th.  A fleecing would be a high second and a high 3rd for 26 but there are only so many dumb GMs these days.

Offline pacman5252

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I've been saying this for years about the Jimmy Johnson chart, it gives a perspective to fans on the process GMs/coaches go through and value picks, but it isn't a be all end all. Every year's draft value chart is class dependent. If Andrew Luck Luck/RG3 are available, those picks are worth more. In most drafts, have about 6-8 blue chip prospects, 15-20 impact day one starters, and then the difference between a late first round prospect and early third can be small.