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Offline Draft Hobbyist

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2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« on: May 25, 2013, 05:52:41 PM »
What position do you guys think the Packers are most likely to target in the 1st round in 2014?

Online ricky

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2013, 10:44:06 PM »
Ask me at the end of this season, after the players have finished the year, when contracts are being negotiated or players being cut loose, and after we know who has played well and who has proven to be unreliable. Then I'll have an opinion. But now? Way, way too early to hazard an educated guess.

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Offline Draft Hobbyist

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2013, 11:22:58 PM »
Ask me at the end of this season, after the players have finished the year, when contracts are being negotiated or players being cut loose, and after we know who has played well and who has proven to be unreliable. Then I'll have an opinion. But now? Way, way too early to hazard an educated guess.

If you don't have an opinion, why did you comment? I feel it's best (and most fun) to have an opinion to situations and then adjust it as players break out, injuries hit, etc. Right now I feel like OL would make sense, as we need a RT and C. That can change if some of these guys can step up and develop. S would make sense. Walter Football had us taking ILB with the reasoning of Hawk and Bishop both nearing the end of their contracts, but I feel like we will re-sign at least one of them and we have Jones and Manning. Also, I don't feel ILB is an essential position in the 3-4 scheme so that lowers the possibility of an ILB even more. If we let Finley walk then I could definitely see a TE in the 1st round. It's not a premium position, but I feel like we will be pretty bare without Finley unless someone steps up (which Quarless could, but I don't see Williams or anybody else working out as a major offensive weapon). We will probably lose Pickett, but we added a lot of guys on the DL. We could go DL in the 1st, but I don't think it's going to be a high position of need. Those are my thoughts on some of the positions that we could target.

Offline LMGAdmin

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2013, 08:45:10 AM »
Ask me at the end of this season, after the players have finished the year, when contracts are being negotiated or players being cut loose, and after we know who has played well and who has proven to be unreliable. Then I'll have an opinion. But now? Way, way too early to hazard an educated guess.

I agree 100%!!
If you are not the lead dog the view never changes.

Offline B

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2013, 10:13:05 AM »
Ask me at the end of this season, after the players have finished the year, when contracts are being negotiated or players being cut loose, and after we know who has played well and who has proven to be unreliable. Then I'll have an opinion. But now? Way, way too early to hazard an educated guess.

I agree 100%!!

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They just ran out of time.
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Offline Nobody

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2013, 11:11:23 AM »
The only way to even begin speculating on who Ted would take in the 1st round next year would be to start from the assumption that he will be drafting purely for need, and then the assumption that we know what that need will be. We may as well try to predict whether it will be raining that day.

Offline JASIII

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2013, 11:45:54 AM »
"Best Player Available".....

Offline Draft Hobbyist

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2013, 12:40:12 PM »
The only way to even begin speculating on who Ted would take in the 1st round next year would be to start from the assumption that he will be drafting purely for need, and then the assumption that we know what that need will be. We may as well try to predict whether it will be raining that day.

To get around your form of technicality, I'll rephrase. At this point, what position do you guys personally feel we should target in the 1st round next year?

Also, the count of people who have posted saying they don't have an opinion is 3 (4 if you count Nobody). Nobody is forcing you guys to comment if you have no opinion.

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2013, 04:51:44 PM »
Since 2005,  in the first two rounds we have targetted the following.
LB three times (Hawk, Matthews, Perry), all first rounders.
DT/DE three times (Harrell, Jones, Neal, Worthy). I thought Neal fitted better here, than NT.
OT three times (Bulaga, Sherrod, College). Remember the Packers love tackles for other line positions
OLB twice  (Matthews, Perry), both first rounders.
QB twice (Rodgers, Brohm)
WR twice (Nelson, Cobb)
RB twice (Jackson, Lacy)
ILB, NT and CB once (Hawk, Raji and Lee)


There are two ways of looking at positions not drafted at all. You can say he has never drafted a safety or TE in the first two rounds, so it is overdue and he gets one of those positions. You could equally say he doesn't value those positions highly for early picks.

My own view is to mostly look at positions with either one or no picks in the first two rounds. That means ILB, NT, CB, TE, S.  Now comes the "in the eye of the beholder" bit to narrow it further. 

Despite CB (somewhat surprisingly) not having been picked much early, The current talent there suggests other positions will attract more urgent consideration.

While we have Raji, I don't see another first rounder NT taken, that is over-subscribing the position. If he is not re-signed, (I think he will be) then NT is probably the Packers no.1 priority. For now, I'll discount NT. I do expect a decent backup, but rounds 2-5 look more likely to me.

TE need rests on the current players, does Quarless or Williams show starting quality talent ? What happens to Finley after 2013 ? I think the most likely scenarios lead to TE being a definite consideration for 1st pick in 2014.

The quality of competition at ILB is average. Jones, Hawk, Bishop, Manning, can fight it out for playing time, but the position doesn't have much star-power. Chance of an ILB, good. We are better off outside with Martthews, Perry, Moses, Mulumba, Palmer. We could do with another guy, but maybe not a first rounder as Perry and Matthews are both firsts.

2014 might be the year for a first round safety, but Ted had a chance of a quality guy in the first three or four rounds of the 2013 draft and passed in a good year for them. I don't think he goes safety in the first unless he really loves a particular guy's value there.

I also think Ted might go WR. The loss of Jennings and Driver makes an early pick a real possibility.

So, we are down to ILB, WR, TE as the most likely choices. To me, there isn't much to choose between them. If pushed, I'll guess Hawk does not play for the Packers in 2014 and we get a first rounder at ILB.
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Online ricky

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2013, 07:22:16 PM »
The only way to even begin speculating on who Ted would take in the 1st round next year would be to start from the assumption that he will be drafting purely for need, and then the assumption that we know what that need will be. We may as well try to predict whether it will be raining that day.

To get around your form of technicality, I'll rephrase. At this point, what position do you guys personally feel we should target in the 1st round next year?

Also, the count of people who have posted saying they don't have an opinion is 3 (4 if you count Nobody). Nobody is forcing you guys to comment if you have no opinion.

My my. Touchy, aren't we? Oh well, I've heard that some guys do have problems with premature expostulation, and this topic seems to be a case in point. The opinion that is being offered, and summarily rejected by you, is that this is very, very early to speculate. That is an opinion. It does speak to your question as to who should be the #1 draft pick next year. Because there are so many variables that any speculation would be totally useless. I understand that this is the slow time; I understand that you are very interested in the draft; I understand that you are trying to offer a topic of interest during this time. All well and good. But quite simply, its an exercise in futility to even guess at the possible position to be drafted next year. Again, this is an opinion.
"My hopes are not always realized, but I always hope." Ovid

Offline Draft Hobbyist

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2013, 08:32:19 PM »
Since 2005,  in the first two rounds we have targetted the following.
LB three times (Hawk, Matthews, Perry), all first rounders.
DT/DE three times (Harrell, Jones, Neal, Worthy). I thought Neal fitted better here, than NT.
OT three times (Bulaga, Sherrod, College). Remember the Packers love tackles for other line positions
OLB twice  (Matthews, Perry), both first rounders.
QB twice (Rodgers, Brohm)
WR twice (Nelson, Cobb)
RB twice (Jackson, Lacy)
ILB, NT and CB once (Hawk, Raji and Lee)


There are two ways of looking at positions not drafted at all. You can say he has never drafted a safety or TE in the first two rounds, so it is overdue and he gets one of those positions. You could equally say he doesn't value those positions highly for early picks.

My own view is to mostly look at positions with either one or no picks in the first two rounds. That means ILB, NT, CB, TE, S.  Now comes the "in the eye of the beholder" bit to narrow it further. 

Despite CB (somewhat surprisingly) not having been picked much early, The current talent there suggests other positions will attract more urgent consideration.

While we have Raji, I don't see another first rounder NT taken, that is over-subscribing the position. If he is not re-signed, (I think he will be) then NT is probably the Packers no.1 priority. For now, I'll discount NT. I do expect a decent backup, but rounds 2-5 look more likely to me.

TE need rests on the current players, does Quarless or Williams show starting quality talent ? What happens to Finley after 2013 ? I think the most likely scenarios lead to TE being a definite consideration for 1st pick in 2014.

The quality of competition at ILB is average. Jones, Hawk, Bishop, Manning, can fight it out for playing time, but the position doesn't have much star-power. Chance of an ILB, good. We are better off outside with Martthews, Perry, Moses, Mulumba, Palmer. We could do with another guy, but maybe not a first rounder as Perry and Matthews are both firsts.

2014 might be the year for a first round safety, but Ted had a chance of a quality guy in the first three or four rounds of the 2013 draft and passed in a good year for them. I don't think he goes safety in the first unless he really loves a particular guy's value there.

I also think Ted might go WR. The loss of Jennings and Driver makes an early pick a real possibility.

So, we are down to ILB, WR, TE as the most likely choices. To me, there isn't much to choose between them. If pushed, I'll guess Hawk does not play for the Packers in 2014 and we get a first rounder at ILB.

You forgot a few picks. I don't know if that changes your line of thinking or not, but Greg Jennings, Terrance Murphy, Nick Collins, and Casey Hayward were all taken in the 2nd round since the 2005 draft as well. That ups the WR count to 4 and the DB count to 3. These changes seem to support your thoughts more than they disagree with them, so I'm guessing it doesn't change any of your thoughts.

I agree with you on a lot of what you said, but I really disagree with you at ILB. I'd be curious to hear more of your thoughts about the ILB position and why you don't think there's much competition there. My mindset is that Hawk has started for many years at ILB, but he is more of a 2-down LB at this point. Bishop is a stud IMO, though. Maybe he regresses due to his injury, but I'm going to assume that he's going to remain at least a very good starter. He's a 3-down LB IMO. There's not much to say about Manning. I like him. I think the Packers like him. I understand if you don't, but I'd be curious to hear if you do or don't, and I think he could be a potential starter, but we'll see. Jones, however, is paid like a starter. I don't think the Packers gave him all that money if they don't think he can start. So to me, I don't see the Packers losing both Hawk and Bishop, and Jones can fill in as a starter if one leaves and the Packers will be fine. That still leaves Manning as quality depth IMO, but I can understand if you don't like him as depth. Still, the Packers wouldn't take an ILB in the 1st round to be a depth guy. Could you provide some more detail on your line of thought at ILB? Thanks. :)

Offline craig

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2013, 10:22:34 PM »
Agree that ILB is a strong target.  Hawk and Bishop are old, and of uncertain futures.  Jones and Manning are not safe to be long-term starters.  That seems an obvious target.  The last ILB selected higher than 5th round Manning was Hawk, and that was a LONG time ago. 

WR also good target.  Jordy will be 29 by next draft, Jones 30, and all three WR have contracts running out.  Very possible. 

OLB.  I'm not sold that Perry will be good.  If not, good target. 

Safety.  We could use a first-rate guy. 


Offline claymaker

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #12 on: May 27, 2013, 08:40:41 AM »
WR- Only about 3-4 potential first rounders. Depending on how they do this year, I expect rather well, I doubt any would be available to Green Bay in the 1st. Anything else would be a reach.

DL- NT/DE is a strong choice, but only a couple I would spend a 1st round pick on atm.

CB- Is somewhere I think they could go, but it's way to early to tell on any of them.

LB- A.J Johnson and C.J Mosley are guys I really like, but they will most likely be gone in a weak LB class.

If I had to narrow it down I really like Trent Murphy from Stanford. I like his versatility, he plays DE/OLB in the 3-4, and it looks like Capers wants to get more athletic linemen. Murphy could put on about 10-15 pounds and be a 3 down player in this defense. Murphy+Jones in the 3rd down Nickel/Dime would bring a really good rush. His teammates Henry Anderson+Ben Gardner could make a cases for themselves as well. Those defensive guys from Stanford and UCLA are a favorite of mine.

Safety- Another Stanford guy, Ed Reynolds.

Personally, trade away everything for Clowney... he's worth it. He fits anywhere but NT in the front seven and he can play it an elite level. I don't see this kid being a bust at all unless he gets injured, but even injuries have been overcome by guys like RG3. Special athletes like AP and Clowney have some sort of freakish ability to rehab.



« Last Edit: May 27, 2013, 08:47:21 AM by claymaker »

Offline OneTwoSixFive

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2013, 09:11:52 AM »
Draft Hobbyist. Sorry about the missed guys. I worked on that post rather early in the morning (in England, that is) and the result shows the sugar rush of breakfast had not engaged yet, I was still half asleep.

ILB features a number of players who can do the job, plus a guy I have high hopes for (Manning). What this position presently lacks is a difference maker. The most cost-effective way to get one, is draft one early. Bishop Jones, Hawk and Manning should manage the job between them, so the only benefit of another mid to late round pick there, is for the Packers to get younger (and cheaper). Therefore, draft there early (first two rounds) or don't bother, is my idea.

I guess the Packers could get a high-ceiling boom-bust ILB later in the draft, but I think a really good ILB, a first round pick, could make a marked difference to this team.

Actually, Today I'm thinking WR will be the pick......and tomorrow it will probably be TE. Those positions are all very close in terms of need, as i see it. If Quarless, D.J.Williams and Finley all fail to be a good go-to TE, then that will be the pick, assuming there is a player that fits, in terms of value. Value is usually the determining factor in which position is picked.
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Offline davekenya

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Re: 2014 -- Packers 1st Round Pick
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2013, 01:34:42 PM »
If the team looked the same in a year as it does now, (meaning no players got significantly worse or better or as UFAs got resigned) and
If BPA rated ILB, TE, NT, S draftees equally at the time GB drafted, and
If TT couldn't trade down to accummulate picks but had to pick, I'd prioritize and want to see drafted any of the above 4 positions.


If no Raji resigned, NT might rate highest (with Pickett and Raji both being UFAs)
Next would be TE as I don't see/want Finley given a big-bucks payday which he'll demand; it's a low ROI.  Nobody else is proven and TE is important for the offense.
Next would be S or ILB equally - we have some options where this isn't highest priority but we have to see how the next 12 months goes with these guys.

Other positions -- C, DE -- have to see how current crop pans out.  On paper 'okay' so I wouldn't list as highest priority.